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booth52

Your No. 1 blog source for rantings on The Sonics, The NBA, Voodoo, Chicken Bones, and Penis Invertings

Falling under the booth52 radar

Friday, July 29, 2005



Throw it down big man!

How on earth did I forget to include this guy in my Sonics offseason gameplan? I could've sworn he was a RFA, but apparently he's for sale to the highest bidder:

Here's the skinny on Stephen Hunter:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/huntest01.html
http://82games.com/04PHO17D.HTM

Briefly the positives to his game for which I'd like to get him in a Sonics uni:
-size: 7'0" with the wingspan similar to Rasheed and Camby
-age: 23
-blocks per 48 min: 4.7
-notes The Cat in The Hat as his favorite book in his nba bio
-price: relatively cheap for the young center/pf with athletic/defensive ability TUP combination type player I covet.

Quick analysis, I'd rank the following accordingly, give or take:
-Chandler (upside bumps him up)
-Camby
-Sam Damme
-Stro Swift
-Stephen Hunter
....
-Eddeee Curreee
....
-Jerome James

Dead or Alive Stephen, you're coming with me. (If I had a choice)

Yup... this is my reader

Wednesday, July 27, 2005
(I believe I'm legally bound to pay any possible royalties that booth52.blogspot.com may ever procure to Simmons by now.)

So a couple of months back, a reader who goes by the name of Digby Warmflash (why people choose to use pseudonyms I have noooo idea- booth52.) commented in my introductory post here at booth52. Apparently this jive turkey is trying to pull the same underhanded two faced trick I pulled to the good folks at The Soul: use a well established blog to gain fame and fortune and leave them once you've become a full-blown blogging diva, taking all their s**t with you. (it's mine now! i'm keeping it!)

Jokes on Warmflash: unfortunatley for him he picked a site that:
a) is about as established as my stool after eating 5 alarm wings from Wing Dome
b) has a reader base of about 3, counting my mama... and yours (oooohhh! schnap dawg!)
c) is run by a retard... with exceptional typeing skills.

But I'll humor him anyways. Here's his post, which IS, IMO, certainly well thought out and argued... and hence has no reason whatsoever being here! Read his 1st comment as well, for more insight into his Sonics' thoughts: basic gist was the hoped for 05 following lineup:

Digby's 05 ideal Sonics roster:
The roster would effectively be:
PG: Ridnour, Daniels
SG: Allen, 1st round pick
SF: Lewis, Wilkins
PF: Chandler, Collison
C: Davis, Swift

Not bad. Looove the idea of a core of Allen, Chandler, Lewis... WITH A.D. still in the mix. Unfortunately the Allen contract blew this option out of the water. I think my pre-offseason signing line-up looked 1) not as initially talented, but 2) filled with TUP and promise for a New Hope a couple of years down the road, and 3) most definitely realistic as evidenced by the outcome so far of the offseason.

Booth52's ideal 05 Sonics' lineup:
STARTING PG: A.D. (my homedog bro bro's.)
Backup PG: Ridnour (still would get significant minutes, but having him here allows us to retain Daniels and upgrade the backup PG spot over any other conceivable scenario)
SG: Cuttino Mobley for either a 3 yr 7-8M per year contract (to entice less years) or 4 years at 5-7 per (the dependable Seiko watch in lieu of the gawdy Rolex's in the front display that be Allen/Joe J./Redd (haha), and Hughes)
backup SG/SF: Wilkins (my n**ga. wait a sec, I'm not black. I can't say that. Someone please help me. Seriously. Dawg.)
SF: Lewis (really, it's easy to forget the great season he had after the hooooorible (my best Walton impersonation... I apologize) offseason. Give him a break guys he's only 20-something or other.
SF #1a: Vlad (with liberal amounts of The Radman at the 4 spot in the +/- friendly small lineup we'd employ often)
PF-C: The doppleganger group continues in05 with a lineup of Stro Swift (I'm down on my knees baby, please choose me!), Collison, Evans and/or Fortson
Bench: Swift/ Draft choices and the obligatory cheerleader: Matteen Cleaves.

With cash to spare for an option of another quality player or pocketed for the 06 offseason. My initial thoughts to this lineup were to 1)mimic the depth of last season, which imo, was a key to their success, 2) keep the underrated Radman and Daniels, 3)drop the overpriced Allen, 4)have legitimate semi-valueable trading pieces in expiring contracts or legit talant to wheel and deal as possible at the trading deadline and 5) take full aim at the 06 or 07 'ship. With the core of Vlad/Lewis/Stro hitting their stride, Collison/Rid/Rob Swift (we can pray) and Wilkins donning their racing shoes, and Daniels/Mobley still quite capable at ages 31-32.

(btw, I think upside was quite possibly the most overpriced value of this offseason, as has folded out till know, in-lieu of forgetting to evaluate what's left in the tank of some the NOT old players like SAR, Mobley etc... It wasn't shocking necessarily but one of the more interesting subplots i noticed in the offseason signings, along with the more realistic valuation of bigs, and overvaluation of the so called premiere SG's. I digress.)

A goal and a reasonable method... that's all I'm asking Wally! Puhhlleeeeeese? With a cherry on top???


So yeah, here's his comment:


Booth,Long time no talk.

Got your e-mail a few weeks back. I've been on vacation for the past 3 weeks or so, and before that took a bit of a sabatical from basketball, but eventually came to the conclusion that basketball and basketball statistics are a simplified (and free) form of crack. So here I am.

Since your thread is primarily about Daniels, I'll try to stick mostly to it.

First off, I agree that Daniels is superior to Ridnour. Most valuation metrics support this.

I also think Daniels' $6 million/year contract is fairly valued, although I have doubts as to whether that will be true in 3 years, given the typical declines of PGs at around 32 years of age.

Re-signing both Daniels and Allen, however, at a combined average annual price tag of of just over $22 million/year, doesn't let the team upgrade at where it needs to most in the short-term - the low post.

Had they done so, depending on the order they would have re-signed them, especially Allen, the Sonics would have had about $12 million (and that factors in the elevators built into player contracts) to play with under $49.5 million in order to fill at least 4 roster spots.

Big name post players like Dalembert, Curry, Big Z, Chandler (who must have spooged his pants after the Dalembert deal), and Gadzuric were all unrealistic since each of those would have eaten up at a minimum 75% of the remaining cap space. Also, of that list, Chandler is the only one who appears likely to be worth the bloated contract for the next 4 years.

With those options gone, the Sonics would have then fielded a team looking something like this:

PG - Ridnour and Daniels
SG - Allen and Kittles/J. Barry/best available SG cheaper than R. Murray
SF - Lewis and WilkensPF - Collison and Fortson
C - D. Davis and Swift

The roster would have been filled out by Mateen Cleaves and other filler

This clearly would have been a downgrade from last season, and wouldn't have offered any real upside until (and if) Robert Swift and/or Petro become players.

I think the team, by not re-signing Daniels, still has some ability to maneuver for the near and far future.

I had hoped, perhaps foolishly, back in March that the Sonics could have signed both Allen and Tyson Chandler, but it seems that Chandler's stock rose since then, in part because of Dalembert's ridiculous salary. Also, Chicago would almost certainly have matched any offer for Chandler, especially if Curry were to leave.

At any rate, not handcuffing yourself with Daniels' contract means the team will have, depending on whether they are able to find suitable one-year contracts for this season, possibly $9-10 million to use next summer. Possibilities would include young/productive big men, like Chris Wilcox, Nene, Drew Gooden, Nazr Mohammed.

Basically, in re-signing Allen, considering the financial position of the franchise and the fact that they don't have a MLE to hand out, it seems almost impossib

Digby Warmflash 07.26.05 - 3:18 am #

I'm reserving comment on his take until I can further study this Dale Davis theory, which has caught on like wildfire in the P.I. forums. One thing I WILL say: Tyson Chandler is the clear cut grade D VVS1 jewel of the 05 FA bigs, no matter what speculations Chad Ford continues to drop in his "news articles about the "cream of the big men crop" Sam Damme.

And here's Davis' vitals btw, which I suppose do NOT indicate a need a clear cut need for life support as I initially thought:
http://basketball-reference.com/players/d/davisda01.html
http://82games.com/04IND17D.HTM

So, thanks again to Mr. Digby "I'll be your huckleberry" Warmflash.

Now to go place the over-under in Vegas on when we'll be graced with the digby.com website...

Antonio Daniels to Sign with Wizards

Tuesday, July 19, 2005




(Officially pouring some Old E over the casket of the Sonics 2004. I'll never forget you dawg... One. )

Observations:

5 years @ 30M: Slightly above the MLE. Antonio Daniels IS 29. But over the past two years he's had a PERs of 19.7 and 18.0. As stated before... the Booth52 goal for any team should be to assemble a team highly capable of winning a championship.

If you're a Sonics' fan, especially this year, that age thing definitely crosses your mind when thinking about players. Ray Allen 29 going to the big 3-0. Daniels, 29 similarly...

Collison, Ridnour, Swift, Petro.... Lewis to a certain extent. Our young core that we will build around. Our core that will take us to the promised land... What to do, what to do...

IF you believe that the best opportunity for the Sonics at a championship run lays beyond 3 years... I fully concur that Allen and Daniels should have been let go in lieu of other younger options.

I don't think we need to have such a long term goal/mindset. My main problem with the re-signing of Allen, was NOT his age necessarily, but what ability the Sonics could have in assembling a championship caliber lineup around, not him, but his 17M per year contract. It don't work, plain and simple.

Over the next 3 years, Ray Allen and Antonio Daniels, barring injury and not taking into account Daniels' moving to a new roster/gamestyle, should perform at a level similar to this year for the next year or two, and depending on their personal physical ability/health, a slightly to moderately lower level in years thereafter.

Furthermore on A.D.:

For reference, according to the basketball messiah, an "average" player would clock in at a PER of 15 and the uber-good Michael Redd, who got paid a ransom's note by the now uber-good Milwaukee Bucks (harhar) had PER's of 19.9 & 18.3. That Uber-good player would also have a +/- of -2.0 for 04, but hey... $1, $2, $90,000,000, what's the difference amongst friends, right?

And to put the cap on perspective: Luke f***king Ridnour (henceforth the official name for good ol' #8) had PER's of 13.1 and 14.6... and a plus minus stat in his "breakout" 04 year of -7.5. Yeah, yeah... basketball's a team game, it's not played in a vacuum, and stats can't truly take into account the intangibles of the game. So while all y'all who disagree with me hang out in THE REAL WORLD and watch Ridnour execute amazing no look behind the back left handed passes (and casually observe, post missed assignment mind you, opposing point guard X hit an open layup/12' J) cementing the argument that he's officially The S**t, I'll just hang out here with my kooky numbers and dream the dream of a sane Front Office/Coaching staff doing the right thing and offering A.D. the starting job, a 4 YR 22M deal, in essence upgrading both the starting PG position AND the backup starting position for the 05 Sonics over any other possible scenario that could be conjured up. And to reiterate, Luke's a good player. I like having him on the team. Especially at his contract status. But on a championship contending team he's not delegated the role of premier player/starting PG.... ESPECIALLY to the consequence of negating the attaining of a much better player. This outright handing of the starting PG spot to him drives me nuts. He'd be an ideal backup on a championship team. As is, he's an O.K. starting PG on an O.K. team. Alas. Twasn't meant to be.

And ANOTHER thing:

I think that so far the Wizards have had an OUTSTANDING offseason, (primarily due to the fact that they made a dollar out of fifteen cents with that Kwame for Caron trade... NOT due to the fact that I think Kwame's a dud... moreso because all they had was the RFA rights to a player they had no desire whatsoever to bring back):
Gilbert Arenas at 23 at SG
A.D. at PG
Caron at SF
Jamison at the 4 spot
Haywood at the 5 spot

They essentially traded Kwame @ 5M+/-, Hughes 13M+/- for A.D. at 6M & Caron at 2M and player(s) X at remainder....

Seriously... The Arenas/Jamison/Hughes trio, along with Haywood, were eliminated by the Bulls. Even taking into account young players growing and team chemistry coming into play that trio, and more importantly their attached salary, would have never realistically challenged for supremacy in the NBA. Now? They've STILL got a good core, good enough at this moment to be a 5-8 seed, yet with enough flexibility to make other moves, sign other players, and wheel and deal with valuable player/contract commodities. I'm jealous.

And sad.

Sonics annoint Weiss as head coach.

Monday, July 18, 2005

Seattle Supersonics appoint Bob Weiss as 05 Head Coach

Big whoop-tee-frikkin-doo/oh no-the world is ending.

I have no doubts that once the Sonics play according to their talent level assembled and hit the playoffs as an 5-8 seed and lose in the 1st round of the playoffs:
1) the year will be considered a loss, since the team no doubt SHOULD have improved their results from last years squad. I mean, golly, geez, heck! We re-signed Ray Allen! Yay.
2) a large part of the blame of this supposed failure will no doubt fall on the shiny noggin of Weiss. Nevermind all that nonsense about looking at the team assembled folks, when you have a guy like Weiss heading your team, you're destined to... not be good, and when you have Mac-10 you're destined for greatness.

Just for the record, I would've preferred:
a) signing Nate at whatever amount/years PROVIDED the signing did not influence in any way the ability of the team to sign players
b) signing either Casey/Weiss over the rotting corpse that is one time NBA Great Lenny Wilkens. (Lenny, you're soup's getting cold, why don't you come on inside and rest them dogs by the warm fire?)

With regards to Casey over Weiss... my belief is that the more unknown identity in Casey would've presented a more intriguing coaching option. But, of course, I have no knowledge whatsoever of the two, so I really don't give my belief any credit whatsoever. The point made over in The Soul that Weiss has a proven track record of not doing much with a talent base does pose some interesting points.

I took a brief glance at those 3 seasons in Atlanta and I will agree that his prior experience does nothing to suggest he is a good coach. All in all that 90-92 Atlanta squad:
1) did decline in team performance once Weiss took the reigns over from Fratello
2) more of the decline could be attributed to a team remaining stuck in neutral while other teams players' grew up/improved and simply passed them by.
2) I don't think they underperformed by much: i.e. they finished in the middle of the pack in the Eastern Conference to teams that were as talented, if not moreso than them.

All in all, the Weiss coaching move has been the least intriguing Sonics' related offseason move thus far and, IMHO, will have the most insignifcant effect on the team in comparison to the player signings/non-signings the team makes.

That is all.

booth52 posting schedule

Wednesday, July 13, 2005
Tonight(7/13/05): My Ideal Sonics' offseason signings

Tomorrow or day after: 05 FA Analysis pt. 1- A closer look at the 2005 Shooting Guard Spending Spree

Weekend: 05 FA Analysis pt. 2- The pendulum shift: Power Forward/Center signings - The disappearance of the NBA Frankenstein?

Next Week: The Official NBA Player Rankings

(note: Schedule subject to delay/postponement/cancellation due to the whims of booth52/booth52's work schedule/Netflix delivery of Soprano season 5-disc 3&4)

To wet the appetite:
05 Signings:
Ray Allen (5yrs-85M)
Michael Redd (6yrs-90M)
Joe Johnson (5-70M)
Larry Hughes (5-65M)
Mobley (??? 5-42M)

Zadrunas Ilgauskas (5-60M)
Dan Gadzuric (6-36M)
Shareef Abdur Rahim (?-MLE?)
Udonis Haslem (5-33M)
Chandler
Dalembert
Swift

04 Signings
Dampier (7-73M)
Blount (6-42M)
Zach Randolph (6-84M)
Adonal Foyle (5-41.6)
Carlos Boozer (6-68M)
Mehmet Okur (6-50M)
Rasheed Wallace (5-57M)
KMart


Quentin Richardson
Jamal Crawford

There's something going on here... And I'm gonna get to the bottom of it.

just woke up from my after work nap... anything I missed?

Wednesday, July 06, 2005


Edited Thursday morning:
This is a post I did in may regarding re-signing Nate Mcmillan. I have additional thoughts which I'll add in a new post later today.

http://booth52.blogspot.com/2005/05/nate-mcmillan-dilemma.html

Here's an article from the Tacoma Trib with actual thoughts from Mac-10.

http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/story/5004723p-4568679c.html

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2101994

http://nbaspurs.blogspot.com/2005/07/money-talks.html

http://seattlesupes.blogspot.com/

http://www.supersonicsoul.com/

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/forum/boards/viewtopic.asp?topicid=61850

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/forum/boards/viewtopic.asp?topicid=61859

Woah. I believe I'll need to sit down for this one.

I may talk about this tomorrow. We'll see.

The Ray Allen Contract & The 04-05 Sonics: A Brief(?) Retrospective

Tuesday, July 05, 2005

“My job is to get us to the play-offs. What happens after that is f**king luck*.”

Billy Beane in Moneyball.

"We just lost the moon."

Tom Hanks as Jim Lovell in Apollo 13.

(*Booth-brief sidenote: I am of the firm belief that, while Lewis no doubt quoted Beane correctly, Billy himself does not actually believe that playoff results are solely or primarily based on luck, and furthermore that some of his more recent GM moves have actually been designed to acquire parts specifically designed to increase the probability of winning in the postseason.)


So for those select few NBA & Sonics fans that have been stuck in a vacuum for the day, allow me to enlighten:

Ray Allen has agreed to a 5 yr $80M contract with the Sonics. There is an extra 5M in performance bonuses, which will no doubt kick in when he performs his leadership duties and buys Johan Petro a burrito from Tacos Guaymas and takes Robert Swift suit shopping at Earl’s Big and Tall shop.


Sometimes it’s easier to get somewhere when you know where you want to go. So, to reiterate, here is Booth52’s goal/destination for the Supes:

To put forth a team highly* capable of winning an NBA Championship.
(*highly added in ammendment 1 to the booth52 constitution)

Now, some people may have a different goal. As stated above, Oakland A’s GM and Booth American Idol Billy Beane stated his (implied) goal: to assemble a competitive team able to get to the playoffs (year in and year out). You could go Chris Mullin’s route and have a goal of creating the most overpaid team. Or mimic the Rockets’ organization and attempt to create the U.R.O.A.T.: Ugliest Roster Of All Time. But as for me, I’ll hang out on that limb and have my sights set on becoming a contendah.

So, with that being said, what exactly would/did that entail for the Sonics this offeason?

To answer that question you’d first have to estimate what exactly the Sonics were last season and how close they actually were to being a contender.

Sonics 05:
Record: 52-30 (6th best)
Accomplishments:
-Won NW Division
-Advanced to 2nd round
And the kicker:
-Fought, scrapped and stood toe to toe with the eventual 05 NBA Champ Spurs to 6 games before narrowly losing in 6 games and displaying a gritty, in a highly contested 7 game series. Well, golly geez heck, if it weren’t for a missed Daniels free throw, a Ray Allen shot bouncing the other way, why, we could’ve taken game 6! Momentum, and intangibles would henceforth follow and there’d be game 7 for us too! And since the Spurs beat the Pistons it only makes sense that if we were that close to beating the Spurs, and if we got rolls and bounces that the Spurs got and won that series (hell, as we SHOULD have!)… why, we’d be World Champs right now! And that of course means we were the best team in the NBA last season.

So there you have it: 2005 Sonics: a free throw and a couple of rolls and bounces away from being the best team in the NBA.

In lieu of such daunting evidence, I’d like to do my silly thing and pick some random stat and base my opinions off of them. Here we go. (Spinning the wheel… woooooshhhhhh! Click… Click…… Click. )
04-05 Regular season Team Scoring Differential

Team Pt differential/Game
1 San Antonio Spurs 7.8
2 Phoenix Suns 7.1
3 Miami Heat 6.5
4 Dallas Mavericks 5.7
5 Houston Rockets 4.1
6 Detroit Pistons 3.8
7 Seattle Supersonics 2.4
8 Memphis Grizzlies 2.3
9 Sacramento Kings 2.1
10 Denver Nuggets 2.0
11 Minnesota T-wolves 1.5
12 Chicago Bulls 1.1
13 Boston Celtics 0.9
14 Cleveland Cavaliers 0.8

(Courtesy of Dougstats.com)

So here we have my crazy stat of the night off which I will use to assume the Spurs were the best team of 05 and, coming in 7th, our friendly neighborhood Supersonics. In between the two layeth a 5.4 scoring differential… uhhh…differential. (Delta-U-Delta represent! Woot! Woot!) For those of you unawares that’d be akin to the scoring differential between the Supes and the Seattle Storm (tap, tap… this mike working? All night folks. Be. Here. All. Night.)

I got no more stats to throw your way, but I fully believe if you re-did the 05 season over again a 100 times, a good 90% or so of the time the Spurs would come out on top. Similarly, but accounting for the more volatile outcomes of a smaller sample size, the Spurs, or the best team in the league, would similarly come out on top in the playoffs about, oh 75.28% of the time.

The 05 Sonics? Caught fire in the beginning of the season, flamed out in the middle. All things evened out and we finished 6th in the L record wise. In the playoffs, we tied for 5th-8th place in playoff outcome. And yes, if not for the Spurs going And-1 on us and breaking ankles left and right, and if not for Rashard’s penis inverting into his body to create an orifice we would have had an excellent chance to win, but still at less than 50% odds, to be generous. Hell, I picked ‘em to win. But I was fully aware that I was riding a hot slot (hehe) and going against the odds. The Spurs, while proving to be a very beatable best team in a 7 game series, were the best team in 05 and while they clawed and scraped their way through a 6 game series with the gutty Sonics, and relied on the Magic of Big shot Robert/Bob in the finals, were still the best of the best. And regardless of outcome, the Sonics were the 7th or so best team in the league.

So:
1) Is reassembling a team that was the 7th or so best unit in the NBA adherent to the goal? Or is a gameplan required that provides for the potential for a better team possible of contending?
2) Does resigning Ray Allen to a 5 yr – 80M contract constitute a step towards either assembling a team that will be at least the equal of last years team (giving them a 8.59% likelihood of winning a championship)? Could it even potentially be a step to a team with a better shot at contending?

Answer:
1) Yes. With a twist. (you put the liiiime een de’ coke…) If the Sonics were capable of bringing back/assembling a team that would have a similar talent base/ winning ability, with the added kicker of a healthy Radmanovic (or equivalent) and a Rashard one year removed/wisened by the 05 playoff debacle, I’d take that. Beggars can’t be choosers and quite honestly, that would be the best I could possibly hope for: to have a team get us to another game 6 vs. the champs with another roll of the dice try at 1st place.

2) No. Here’s just one reason why:


The reshaped Sonics landscape:
Assuming 49.5M payroll (est. salary cap)

PG: Luke Ridnour (1.7M)
SG: Ray Allen (16M)
SF: Rashard Lewis (8.5M)
PF: Nick Collison (1.8M)
C: TBA

Bench:
PG: TBA
SG: TBA
SF: TBA
PF: Danny Fortson (6.8M)
C: Robert Swift (1.8M)
X: TBA
X: TBA

Used Cap: 36.6M (see*)
Remaining: 13.5M*
(*This is prolly more if Allen’s contract is spread out in ascending fashion, as is typical.)

So, the Sonics have 13.5M to shape out their roster, to... fill out the rough spots. They have 6 positions to fill. There are a myriad of options that could now be taken, but I’m guessing that the money is gonna be divvied out something as follows:

4.5M+/- on a backup guard
3M +/- to resign the Human Highlight’s younger brother’s cousin’s momma’s stepson’s uncle Damien Wilkins.
4.5M+/- on a center/pseudo PF/Stiff
1.0M on a backup SG/SF/PG pseudo-type-player.
0.3M on Matteen Cleaves
0.3M on cheerleader #2: Kirsten Dunst. (Yeah, that’s right, I went there Matteen! Oh no you di’int! Bring. It. On.)

I see no probable outcome in which an 05-06 team will be a better basketball team than last years. Even assuming that Wilkins can show solid to above average production in 25-32 minutes, assuming Allen matches his 05 output, Lewis continues his ascension, even with an improved Nick Collison, even with a more intellectual Daniel Fortson (you come into this house right this minute young man!) cutting down on his hack act get his minutes ave. up to 13min. a game, even with Luke, you are the chosen one, Ridnour darting pretty no look bounce passes left and right averaging 14, 9, and 6 blown defensive assignments a game…. There is no frikkin frakkin way the team will be close to as good as the 04-05 team. Antonio Daniels, Vladimir Radmanovic, and the magic hanging in the 04-05 air are being seriously downplayed from their roles as key contributors to the Sonics’ success.

And 05-06 will painstakingly prove it.

(for those aiming the "what f**king plan do you have that would put them into contention smartass?" gun my way... short answer: sign 1 or 2 more appropriately compensated to younger talents, resign Radman/Wilkins, hand over the starting spot to A.D. and get his ass back here, and have enough financial/roster flexibility to wheel and deal next offseason. Yes. rebuild and more realistically contend in 1, 2, or even 3 years.)



Like my hopes/goals for the Sonics, I’m out. Like trash on a Thursday.

Seattle Supersonics Resign Ray Allen

Seattle Supersonics Resign Ray Allen

So it's official... sort of.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2100705

According to Chad Ford, the deal is done. I'm holding off on an analysis until I see the final numbers. But, supposedly

a) it's for 5 years, as opposed to the 6 max
b) it's for more than the 75M initially offered.

Check out an analysis I did back in April. Booth McD nailed the numbers down. But as to his call... Now the question is, is Ray Allen's playoff performance and the Sonics run enough to sway my opinion any? Hmmmm...
http://booth52.blogspot.com/2005/04/talking-jibba-jabba-laying-down.html

Looking back at the 04-05 Lakers... AND responding to maggette comments

Saturday, July 02, 2005
The article:
http://booth52.blogspot.com/2005/07/trade-allen-for-maggette-are-you-nuts.html

The comments:
http://www.haloscan.com/comments/booth52/112002435983925042/

But Kobe/Tmac/Shaq have other offensive weapons with FT being one of them. And a lot of Maggette's FTA come from 1on1 moves, which is detrimental to the team (other players) passing flow. Hense low +/-. I don't know if you've ever played bball at competitive level, playing with a guard that does a lot of 1on1 move and FTs in throughout the game kinda make you moving less without the ball. Kobe's 10+ FT coupled with horrible FG% led them to records worse than the other team in LA.
mrcoffee 07.02.05 - 11:44 pm #

The problem with those stats is you can't take them in a vacuum. You need to take into account the quality of the teams that they're on and the focal point of the opposing team's defensive scheme.Ray posted his numbers as the #1 option on a team that finished first in its division and won 50+ games. Maggette posted his numbers as the second option on a team with a solid post player, that sadly, was one of the worst in the Western Conference.Ray always had the opposing team's best defender on him, and their defenses were always designed to limit him as much as possible. Maggette, on the other hand got his points as Brand passed out of the post or hit him as a cutter.Don't get me wrong, Maggette is a great player. He is a fantastic finisher with a reliable jumper and shot from the line. But he doesn't have nearly the touch that Ray has, or the ball-handling skills, or passing skills, or ability to take over a game and rattle off 13 points in a row.Maggette is a less athletic Desmond Mason with a better jumpshot and slightly better handle. Put Elton Brand on the Sonics and Ray's numbers would improve by a reasonable degree. To say Maggette is close to Ray as a basketball player is quite a reach IMHO.
Guru 07.02.05 - 11:54 pm #

O.K. I was initially typing a response in the comments but my run-on/tangent thoughts type posting habit quite simply got the better of me.


Quick answer: Never played at a competitive level. Not even HS sadly. Just a weekend/after work pickup games at the gym type of guy at my peak, now I hardly get the chance to play. If that automatically disqualifies me in your mind of being able to speak intelligently on the subject, you are free to leave now, no offense taken.

Kobe's 10+ FT coupled with horrible FG% led them to records worse than the other team in LA

Warning: I'm using this one little sentence to break out into a rant I meant to spew previously but somehow got forgot about/misplaced.

-This comment bothers me. Greatly. While I'm NOT trying to stuff words/thoughts into mrcoffee's statement, there is a small implied thought that I get from that sentence that mirrored popular opinion-articles regarding the 05 Lakers and the Anti-Christ Kobe f**king Bryant.

There were several popular opinions out there about the 05 Lakers team:
A) They sucked. Supremely. More appropriately they failed in some underlying set of GOALS predetermined for them that season.
B) The cause of their departure from greatness resides solely to primarily in the body wearing the number 8 jersey for several reasons.
-1. He chased Shaq away. Shaq was the primary reason for the Lakers dynasty. The swing in records seen by the Lakers and Heat is proof that the trade was horrendous. If Shaq had resigned with the Lakers, the team would have still been contenders.
-2. He chased Phil Jackson away. Phil Jackson is a large cause for the Lakers winning ways. With him they would have been a winning team.
-3. He is not a team player.
-4. He is a ballhog, his game is not "winning" basketball.
-5. He is overhyped/not as good a player as many previously/still think.
-6. He is one baaad man. And his wife ain't all dat! Like, ohmigod, do i hate his guts becky!!! Only a Laker/Kobe lover could truly not hate this guy.

1st off, in regards to sucking, yeah, they actually kinda did. They finished 34-48, 11 games out of the 8th spot. I remember Marc Stein's numerous "the Lakers aren't going to get in the playoffs," and all his proud "I told you so" articles after the Lakers proved him right. There were countless other sportswriters who wrote similarly.

What the pundits so easily seemed to glance over in their gloating were the countless other factors. Like, oh, I don't know...
How about injuries?
Games missed:
Bryant: 16 games
Divac: 67 games
George: 67 games
Odom: 16 games
Mihm: 7 games
Grant: 13 games
Walton: 21 games

And what about these missed games:
Tomjanovich: 40 games

So, you have numerous key players missing huge chunks of game, on a team without much real depth in the first place requiring significant playing time from guys with names like brian cook and tierre brown... Your top 2 players miss key games... your in a season of MAJOR transition which include completely changing offensive schemes, roster personnel, coaching etc.... your head coach, widely considered a great coach in his own right, has health complications and is forced to resign... you not only change coaches midseason, but also try to reincorporate some of the triangle offense with a bunch of guys who haven't used it before, to a coach who hasn't used it before... The Lakers had this crapload of stuff dropped on them during the season but it didn't really matter to the beat writers. Shaq (and the Heat) were flourishing in Miami, Kobe (and the Lakers) were floundering in L.A. The only logical response/output to write about was Kobe killed the dynasty/is overrated blah-blibbity-blah-blah-blahblahbaalhbalahhh. It was the soup du jour which was spoonfed/shoved down our throats unmercifully, the topic with the flashy headline, the attention getter, the girl with the tits AND ass, the natural response. Aaaargghh!!! I HAAATE that s**t.

So, to counterpoint:
A) The Lakers didn't actually suck THAT bad. It was widely stated preseason that if the Lakers got an 8 seed it would have been a shocker, and should be considered a positive 1st year step for the new team. While the Lakers did finish 34-48, before a prutal 3-19 season ending slide they were actually 31-29. Throughout much of the season they WERE sitting pretty at the 7 or 8 spot, or at the very least close to it. And to discredit the importance of the factors above for the flashier Kobe's a b***h, Shaq is gone articles was craptacularly bad journalism.
B)
1. The hypothetical 2004-05 Lakers version of Shaq would have been nowhere near the equivalent of the 04-05 Heat version of Shaq. These same writers/observers wrote tons about the chip on shaq's shoulder, the gleam in his eyes, he of something-to-prove status, he listening and obeying GM orders to lose 30lbs and come in shape into the season. That Shaq would have never ever set foot into Staples center wearing a Lakers uni. Never.
2. I'm not a big believer of placing tons of adulation/credit for a teams success/failures on a coach. I personally believe numerous other coaches could have won 6 rings if given the teams Phil was blessed with. If you disagree with that... that's cool... Well F**k you too! ;)
3, 4, & 5. Generic broadcaster mantra #32,670: Great players play on great teams, elevate their teams to winning basketball/greatness. Great players are measured by their teams greatness. This response is getting waaayy too long as is. I'll just simply say to everyone that has downgraded Kevin Garnett from greatness due to the T-wolves miserable season (yeah, I'm talkin to you sports guy! You broke my heart Simmons, you broke my heart.) to everyone who thinks much more lowly of Kobe after this season: remember exactly what you think of them right now. Imprint it into your head. Jump on, jump off, it matters not. But please, just remember this present opinion years from now.
6. Kobe's wife IS hot. Kobe Bryant is a jerk. I do not like him. I do not like the Lakers. I do not like green eggs and ham. But Kobe's still a helluva player.



... AND NOW, further on to the comments:

Humor me please by taking a look at this list, these numbers now.

You know, when I look at that list, setting aside what it's indicating, the 1st thing that pops to mind is that this is a list of the top offensive players in the league. I don't think it's a coincidence that players that include in their game an affinity to getting to the rim and getting fouled. But i suppose you could look at this and infer that this validates the whole star players get the star treatment in the nba too. You could...

Listen, I concur with alot of what both mrcoffe and guru are stating. You can't blindly trust stats. You can't. Ballhogs do affect the flow of the offense. And stats do not incorporate the thousands of other factors that we SHOULD account for when evaluating players. This all ties in rather well with an old post that I wrote a while back trying to compare Allen with Manu. Manu was statistically better than Allen last year. But yes, the other factors should not be discredited. Allen showed he could shoulder the burden of being the PTPer of a team (this guy's sensational! listen to the cameron crazies going crazy!! yeah baby!!) as well as being able to produce transcendent individual playoff performances.

But I am not an idiot hanging out in a vacuum. Honestly. I wish I COULD quantify those uncountable efforts. I fully believe that they are quantifiable, but we simply haven't gotten around to it yet. But... do we then simply disregard credible facts/numbers because of their incompleteness in judging the whole picture? What of GM's? Should they throw away the stat sheets when deciding which direction to go personnel wise when choosing between two players whose backgrounds put some credible doubt into the numbers? With ALL the inconsistencies and anomalies they don't take into account, these numbers are still the most valuable litmus test we have. Some moreso than others.
And, quite simply, regarding Maggette & Ray,
1) the similarities in PER/output is too close to discredit an assumption that Maggette will be an adequate replacement for Ray, at the least
2) the difference in likely salaries between the two is way too huge and important to discredit as well in the evaluation. The value of Maggette, taking this into account, in my mind ends the argument for the validity of the make believe trade.
3) I think it's ludicrous to consider FTA's/the game/play that provides them as a negative quality of a player
4) to be the broken record, I'm NOT fully convinced that you can't compare numbers between a second option type guy vs. a 1st option type guy. But yes, you have to look at this factor among many others to avoid being an idiot.
5) and regarding the idea that Brand on the Sonics would increase Allen's numbers: If anything I think that would have a slightly negative impact on his output (the gawdy numbers like ppg etc) but in all likelihood increase his PPS, eFG. The reverse would likewise hold true for maggette.


And here's a link of a post made by a Clipper's blogger/writer, done in March.
http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_12025.shtml

One.
Booth52

He's Making A List, Checking It Twice...

The 2005 Free Agency Period aka The Sonics shopping spree.

For the present moment let us forget about NEEDS. Let us not focus on NEEDING to resign Ray, NEEDING Mr. Sonic Nate McMillan to return, & NEEDING to take a hit out on Wally Walkah. With that being said, on with the list. We've got a big sweaty wad of cash sitting in our pockets. Here's a thought. How bout we don't go out and immediately pay off the loan for the '04 Accord sitting in the garage. We's gots options peeps! 0% interest! Rebates! Discounts! Brand New! Slightly used but still servicable! Let's go out and check out the dealerships no?


The Players in this High Stakes Hold em Final Table (& chip count*):
(Who say's you can't have too many analogies? )
*Assumes 49.5M Salary Cap
*Numbers extrapolated from the salary figures at hoopshype.com. Aside from including bogut's contract, they don't take into account money set aside to sign up drafted players. Chad Ford's got differenet numbers here.)

Charlotte (39.5M in cap space)
Seattle (32M)
Atlanta (29.5M)
New Orleans (23M)
LAC (20.5M)
Chicago (27.5M) assuming Chandler and Curry opt out
Cleveland (28)
Milwaukee (22M)
Washington (12.5M)
Dallas (Mark Cuban, Infinite*M)

Seattle Roster:

It’s mine! I’m keeping it now!
Rashard Lewis 1yr left at 8.5M (believe there might be a PO at 07)
Nick Collison at 1.8 (signed through 07 w/ PO at 07)
Luke Ridnour at 1.7 (signed through 07 w/ PO at 07)
Robert Swift at 1.8 (signed through 08 w/ PO at 08)
Danny Fortson at 6.5 (6.9 in 06. Yay. We got the ol' sparkplug back. Yay.)
Petro at X (yay.)
Gebalalalalle (double yay.)
(This is, at least to me, the Sonics 05 team. I'd much rather see it that way than mentally consider Radman/Allen and company as part of the team until they are signed elsewhere. That thought proccess is folly, and leads to the inevitable Booth52 burning his clothes and crying in the shower scene when Ray Allen bolts to join King James and the Cavaliers. hehe. I keed. I keed.)

Don’t pack your bags just yet.
Damien Wilkins RFA
Vladimir Radmanovic RFA
Reggie Evans RFA
Ronald Murray RFA

The 15M-dollar question:
Ray Allen UFA

We’ll miss you little buddy:
Antonio Daniels PO-will opt out- UFA

So we’ve got your resume here, mmm-kay, and we’ll let you know.
And don’t call us. We’ll call you.
Vitaly Potapenko UFA

Don’t let the door hit your rotund ass on the way out:
Jerome James UFA


The Free(?) Agents:

UFA’s:

Ray Allen and The Replacements
Ray Allen
Michael Redd
Larry Hughes
Cuttino Mobley
Bobby Simmons
Latrell Sprewell

Long, Big, & Stiff(s)
Sam Dalembert
Theo Ratliff
Stromile Swift (my man crush of the moment)
Zydr… uhhh. Z.
Shareef Abdur Rahim
Donyell Marshall
Jeroooomme!
Antoine Walkah!!
Darius Miles
Dale Davis

2nd options/backups to Rid (don't EVEN get me started)
Antonio Daniels (preparing the break-up mixed tape right now. Please don't go baby! Come back to me!)
Earl Watson
Jeff McGinnis
Dan Dickau
Gary Payton
Damon Stoudamire

The bargain bin:
Glenn Robinson
Jahidi White
Bo Outlaw
Ervin Johnson
Mark Madsen
Tyronn Lue
Darrel Armstrong
And Company…

RFA’s

You want em?! Not without a fight, you won’t!
Joe Johnson
Tyson Chandler
Eddie Curry


We can avoid the fight, if you just give me your PB&J sandwich right now.
Kwame Brown
Vladimir Radmanovic
Jamaal Tinsley
Marko Jaric
Kyle Korver
Brendan Haywood
Gerald Wallace
Jason Collins
Primo Brezec
Udonis Haslem
Dan Gadzuric
Reggie Evans
Flip Murray


Options (Those not specified are player options)
Keith Van Horn
Jalen Rose
Grant Hill
Jamal Mashburn
Bonzi Wells (TO)
Eddie Jones
Nick Van Exel (TO) at 12M, I believe it’s safe to bump him to the UFA list
Bobby Jackson (TO)
Devean George
Austin Croshere (TO)
Cliff Robinson


Alrightee. So there's the list/basics. Coming soon is my proposal for where we throw the cheddah around and the roster I'd ideally like to see compose the 2005-06 Seattle Supersonics.

Trade Allen for Maggette... are you nuts?

Friday, July 01, 2005
Sorry I didn't provide a link, I couldn't really find one. There's been articles/rumors from "reliable insider sources" claiming the Clippers are targeting Ray Allen. One of the latest rumors I've seen floating around is a trade of Ray Allen for Corey Maggette and Chris Wilcox. I'd just like to start off immediately by saying that is the most ludicrous trade scenario I could possibly imagine. And while both Elgin Baylor & Wally Walker have participated in some questionable player acquisitions this one would have to immediately bumped to the top. It is a completely one sided trade.

I would NEVER give up Corey Maggette for Ray Allen.

Yeah, that's right, I would rather have Maggette than Ray Allen. In a f**king heartbeat.

Now before you go turning the page, let me continue to say that right now, as of this moment, Sugar Ray is the better player than Corey. But the difference is more razor thin than I believe most expect:

Here are the relavant stats:







Allen Maggette Allen age 25
mpg 39.3 36.9 38.2
ppg 23.9 22.2 22.0
rpg 4.4 6.0 5.2
apg 3.7 3.4 4.6
efg 49.8 45.7
PER 21.38 20.34
PSA 1.11 1.15


For more in depth numbers jump right in:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/maggeco01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/allenra02.html
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/la_clippers.htm
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3080/career
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3336/career


Does anybody else look at these numbers and see a huge difference? Yet people whom I usually trust don't even consider Maggette a top 50 player.

Top SG's of the league: Kobe, T-Mac, Wade, Manu, The Truth, Sugar Ray, Joe Johnson, Redd, Hughes, VC, Rip, Ben Gordon... really? Maggette couldn't crack this list? A travesty. I'm ashamed of you Mr. Simmons, really. You've got season tix to the clips, have seats to watch this guy play and can't see gem in front of your eyes.

Let's be devil's advocate for a sec: What about the playoff dependability of Allen you say? Yeah, I'll concede that. With Ray, we know he's capable of performing "in the clutch." There is a possibility that Corey is just a statstuffer and that when it comes down to taking the final shot or playing well in the playoffs his nuts will shrivel to the size of raisins We'll call it the Rashard Syndrome. And considering we've already got Rashard pulling that crap, we can't possibly have these two unknown quantities, without leadership capabilities, leading our team right? Baloney. I'm giving Lewis another chance to redeem himself and giving Corey one as well to prove he's got the balls. What else? Oh yeah, he's a leader/great chemistry guy. He talks to Damien Wilkins after practice? Eats lunch with A.D.? A natural born leader? Read The Alchemist ?Gawd, please end this crap. Not two years ago, Allen was being labeled the exact opposite at Milwaukee. Pure perception, all of it. I ain't gonna let this crap get in the way of pulling a MF'ing A trade.





Here's the stats that I find the most compelling:
Corey Maggette
05- 6.72
06- 7.28
07- 7.84
08- 8.40

Those numbers are what Maggette is locked up for in terms of salary per year. That's about 30M for 4 years from a guy who has averaged 20pts, 6 boards, & 3 dimes over the best two years in 36mpg. He's also 25 years old. Allen was reportedly offered a 5yr-75M dollar contract. That averages out to about 15M a year. He turned it down. I would infer that not only does he want more money, but along with the new CBA, he'll want the extra year the Sonics can legally give him.

So let me get the options straight: Ray Allen at 6 yrs 90M or Corey Maggette at 4 yrs 30M. Ray Allen at age 30-36 vs. Corey at age 26-29. Really?

Point is: What is of more importance to me is not simply comparing Allen to Maggette, but more importantly comparing the product/output you get from the 15M a year given to Allen compared to the 15M paid to Maggette (6-8M) and player(s) X at 9-7M. A 9M dollar player folks, in addition to Maggette who will, if not match or exceed Allens offensive output, at least come close. Imagine Tyson Chandler and Corey Maggette compared to a tandem of Ray Allen & Nick Collison. I can go through a hundred other scenarios folks. I really can't understand how people could not see the TUP to this trade. Lewis, Maggette, & player C (& maybe D) leading the Supersonics revival to the glory days... Please stop with the tease Chad Ford/Marc Stein. I can't take any more.

If this trade rumor has any legs to stand on, I say we get Elgin on the phone and get it done before he wakes up. I would be even willing to throw in a future 1st rounder, or even (gasp!) Swift or Petro to get this deal done. Even more if need be.

Rashard, Maggette, Stromile Swift, A.D., Pot. Collison, Rid, Radmanovic, Fortson, Damien Wilkins, Swift. Lawd have mercy!!! With cash to spare.

I would have to wet myself if that scenario ever happened.

Please Elgin, make my dreams come true. Youuuu can doooo it!



The way of the future

Howard Hughes: [talking of Juan Trippe] He owns Pan-Am. He owns Congress. He owns the Civil Aeronautics Board. But he does not own the sky.

As I've stated before the initial reason I started commenting/posting at Supersonicsoul is because it was one of the 1st Sonics fan sites I came across. Well, just in case anyone is unaware like I was, there are quite a few more sites out there Sonics related (when i get around to updating this blog, I'll appropriately link these)

Sonics Forums:
Seattle P.I. Forum (the one I've been frequenting lately, lots of informed fans)
realgm.com/boards (prolly the largest fanbase, I think)
sonicscentral.com (from what I can tell, it used to be a pretty established forum, but you can almost see the tumbleweeds rolling along when you come in now)
Justbball.com
basketballboards.net/forum
prosportsdaily.com/forums

And of course the blogs:
http://www.supersonicsoul.com/ (still going strong)
http://seattlesupes.blogspot.com/ (read worthy at the very least for the hottie pic updates, if not for the humorous POV)
http://sonicscentral.com/blog/
http://bremertonians.blogspot.com/ (seattle sports in general)
And I'm sure there's even more out there I'm unaware of.

Seriously, there are diehard fans out there, alot of whom are actually quite intelligent, and you can pick practically any of these sites to fulfill your Sonics' jones and pass the time away listening/reading what others have to say about Allen, Nate, & Co. The problem I suppose is that they're not all congregated at one uber-site. That is if you consider that a problem or a nuisance. I initially thought it was.

During the playoffs I came across two really good Spurs forums:
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums
http://www.spursreport.com/forums

They both have nice interfaces, a large fan base that congregate at each, and were/are highly entertaing to read, especially during the Spurs-Sonics series. That was when I initially started thinking why the hell doesn't natural selection thin out the herd and save us the hassle of having to go to multiple sites?

Is it that bad a situation to have multiple sites to choose from? In and of itself either of the Spurs forums would be adequate reading/forum-ing alone. But having both out there gives you the choice between two great products with slight nuances. And reading both only heightens the team fanatic experience to an extremely unhealthy level. The combination is almost as great as the invention of the Red Bull + (insert your choice of alchohol here) mixed drink. I mean, seriously, what the hell was I whining about again?

So while I would ideally wish the herd of sonics forums gets trimmed down to 2 or 3 really well established sites, much like the Spurs forums situation, all things considered, I'll take the situation as is as opposed to option B: an internet with only one Pan Am Sonics forum owning the skies over the Atlantic.




-And regarding The Aviator, pretty good flick methinks. One thought in particular: Alan Alda (and Baldwin as Trippe as well)/the director/writer did a good job creating the despisable character Sen. Brewster. Without the Brewster & Trippe characters/nemesis plotlines working well, I doubt the movie would have worked/I would have liked it.
So here's the thing: I'm fully aware that's what the characters were meant to provide for the story, and to look at it from a skewed angle, that the moviegoer is fully manipulated by the script/acting/directing into rooting for the hero/against the villain. It's a vital part of the plot/movie and without it the movie goes nowhere.
For me, a movie doesn't work when I feel/am made aware of the manipulation by bad packaging and handling (had a sexual reference analogy here but to keep it P.C. has been edited out) from the director/actor/writing. You know what I'm talking about: the over the top villains/performances, cheesy villain lines/sequences, straight up in your face plotlines practically spelling it out for you: that is the bad guy, this is the good guy, bad guy killed good guys (insert family member loved one here)- don't like that guy, root for this guy. So regarding The Aviator, it was either good cause it was good or simply because my palate/intelligence for movie watching has eroded into nil. And keep in mind, this is coming from a guy who stood up and clapped along with the rest of the audience during the closing credits of Independence Day at the theatre. That movie rocked! Bill Pullman as the president... giving his speech... goosebumps Bill... you ah a smooth talkah! you ah, you ah! (yet another obscure, out of nowhere reference that noone but the retarded would possibly catch) haha!

-and, oh yeah, don't put money on it, but i think some actual sonics' related posts are forthcoming. hopefully a cheap allen trade rumor post might come tomorrow. free agency beckons, my friends! this should be interestin